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IBM (NYSE: IBM) - An In-depth Stock Analysis
Introduction:
Good evening everyone. This post will be an in-depth look at IBM, and is likely going to end up being a bit lengthy. The stock is in a bit of a weird position, there is no doubt there will be people on both sides of the fence when looking at this stock. First we will take a look at the business for those unfamiliar, then the financials, and lastly their potential road ahead.There will be a few questions we are looking to answer:
- Is there revenue growth?
- Is there earnings growth?
- Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt)
- Is there strong cash flow?
IBM - International Business Machines:
International Business Machines' mdel is to be a part of everything IT's enterprise needs. The company primarily sells:- Infrastructure services (37% of revenue),
- Software (29% of revenue),
- IT services (23% of revenue),
- Hardware (8% of revenues).
Strengths:
- The company has been able to use its large free cash flow to invest heavily in the future (R&D and acquisitions) as well as buy back significant amounts of its own stock. Additionally the cash flow is allow the company to transition its larger customer base from old lower margin businesses to new higher margin, higher growth products and services.Risks:
- The company consistently tops the annual list of U.S. patent beneficiaries.
- The acquisition of Red Hat is transforming the company toward new Cloud technology.
- IBM’s old mainframe business is in a long term decline. As we will see in the next section, over the last 10 years the company’s Revenue growth is negative, Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) is barely positive.
- While the stock share buybacks were listed as a positive, they are also a negative. IBM's Earnings Per Share (EPS) is only positive because they bought back so many shares.
- And most importantly, data and analytics businesses face fierce competition from corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft, and others.
Financial History:
There is going to be a lot to unpack here, let's look at the general trend here.| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Debt | Debt / Earning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 106,916 | 26,361 | 27,163 | 1.0 |
| 2013 | 98,368 | 27,478 | 29,680 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 81,741 | 20,372 | 38,702 | 1.9 |
| 2016 | 79,919 | 18,551 | 40,902 | 2.2 |
| 2017 | 79,139 | 16,223 | 45,086 | 2.8 |
| 2018 | 79,591 | 16,711 | 42,656 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 77,147 | 16,844 | 66,883 | 4.0 |
Looking back at the first chart there are two things that need to be pointed out. Firstly, the decline in revenue and EBITDA has been leveling out, from 2017-2019 we can see there hasn't been as much of a decline. Secondly, the ballooning in debt in 2019 is attributed to IMB acquiring Red Hat.
So let's answer some of the questions.
- Is there revenue growth? - No
- Is there earnings growth? - No
- Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt) - Lots of Debt
- Is there strong cash flow? Hmmm.
| Year | Cash Flow from Operations | Capital Expenditures | FCF/E Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 19,846 | 4,108 | 16,787 |
| 2015 | 17,225 | 3,579 | 13,594 |
| 2019 | 14,770 | 2,286 | 31,365 |
At the current stock levels the free cash flow yield over the last decade has been ~11%. So if they can continue to stop their decline, or even turn around at this point there could be strong profit potential.
Let's quickly look into where the money is coming from.
Revenue:
| Revenue Sector | 2018 | 2019 | Year-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud & Cognitive Software | 22,209 | 23,200 | +6% |
| Global Business Services | 16,595 | 16,634 | +2.4% |
| Global Tech Services | 29,146 | 27,361 | -3.7% |
This also does not take into account the potential from their Red Hat acquisition.
So what's the big if?
The big "IF" is whether or not they can turn the business around from where it is currently at or if it will just continue to decline. The earnings/revenue/debt numbers look terrifying right now, but strong cash flow is what allows companies to survive into the future. If IBM can increase their revenue and earnings, pay down debt, and maintain or increase their current cash flow there is a potential for a strong return.Some other numbers:
NOTE: Current for November 2020 and very likely to change.| Current Annual Payout / Share | $6.52 |
|---|---|
| Yield | 5.84% |
| 10 Yr Div Growth Rate | 11.6 |
| 3 Yr Div Growth Rate | 5.3 |
| 1 Yr Div Growth Rate | 3.5 |
| Current EPS Payout Ratio | 72.77% |
| Years on Consecutive Div Increase | 25 Years |
Final Thoughts:
IBM has been beaten down and currently sits in an interesting position. It is a global behemoth of a company with a wide moat, it is very intertwined in many different services, yet, over the last decade, it has languished financially under their previously poor leadership.Picking this up, maintaining your current position, or staying far away depends on your personal risk tolerance. They have been declining, but the decline has slowed. Their growth in the Cloud sector is becoming more profitable, but it has many competitors there. There was a change in upper leadership. They have high levels or debt, but high levels of cash flow. So much is going on. (They are also involved in crypto - Stellar Lumens for those interested in that, won't be talking about it in detail here)
Ultimately, you need to ask yourself, do you believe in this company?
I hope everyone found this post interesting, please supplement this with your own research. What is everyone's opinion about the company?
As always, thanks for reading, and have a good day/night!
EDIT: Fixed some math errors. Thanks everyone for the comments, remember this post wasn't an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell, just something to get brain juices going.
If you ain't getting into PLTR, you're missing out - here's why:
TL;DR - PLTR 150 12/31/21
So, Palantir is up 105% from its average low of about 9 bucks. For the autists who bought in at the low, congrats and fuck you. For the retards who fomo'd in yesterday at ATH - I still love you, but 711k? That's ballsy.
Now I'm sure you're wondering: where the fuck is PLTR's ceiling?
PLTR's advantages, now with some data
I'll admit, most of my previous DD was equal parts BS and equal parts cocaine fueled shitposting that had a semblance of logic and formatting. But this time, I have facts in addition to my cocaine fueled shitposting.Realistically, Palantir's biggest advantage is that it helps large companies streamline their own disparate datasets without needing the companies do anything to that data.
This means: Palantir clients don't have to change the way they operate to gain additional insights.
Essentially, a client would use Palantir's suite of tools like Gotham to parse through all of their data so that they can make better use of said data. This part from their IR report gets quoted a lot, but it's worth looking at:
An oil and gas customer, one of the largest energy companies in the world, identified a new opportunity to use our software to save costs in connection with oil exploration activities and generated $57 million in cash savings within weeks of starting to use our platform.Again, keep in mind that all of this is happening without the client changing their data - i.e. no need to hire a dedicated team to handle data migration (along with all the risks associated with that), and no need to train their existing team to learn a new method for data entry.
The energy company identified an additional $315 million in cost savings opportunities using our software, and the company’s management is currently targeting $1 billion in total savings in the coming year through the use of our platform.
Essentially: with minimal disruption to operations, this client is suddenly able to identify pathways for savings by using Palantir.
The best part?
This client can't leave Palantir because Palantir didn't change anything on the client's end. All Palantir did was give the client a tool that connects some dots between dataset A and dataset B that were previously unconnected.
Get rid of Palantir, and that connection is lost: this is because dataset A and dataset B used to never talk to each other, and they'll probably still never talk to each other. All Palantir did was help the humans behind the wheel see the connection.
This means Palantir's non-government contracts are likely to be very sticky. Moreover, in instances of mergers and acquisitions, the marrying of data is usually a huge headache. If that headache can be reduced, then it smooths out potential friction in operations and allows new acquisitions to more quickly start performing and generating ROI for their new parent company.
Palantir's Future
Palantir has a very bright future ahead of it for the following reasons:- Large total addressable market
- Clean balance sheet
- Closer integration with the military
Total Addressable Market is a term that is typically used to reference the revenue opportunity available for a product or service.But keep in mind that just because TAM is high doesn't necessarily mean that will all translate into income. As competitors emerge, they will eat into that market. But until a competitor can find the 21st century Osama bin-Laden, or help the US military fight an informationized war (more on that later), I don't think they'll be able to hold a candle to Palantir's capabilities.
Which brings me to my next point: Palantir's balance sheet is sexy as fuck.
During their most recent earning call, they revised their revenue guidance upward to 1.07 to 1.072 billion in 2020. Let that number sink in. This is a 2500-person company bringing in over a BILLION dollars per year in revenue in what will most likely be incredibly sticky revenue.
But retard, I can hear you say, you didn't see how much they lost.
I did, you asshole. And I'm getting to it:
Palantir's main losses came from employee stock compensation. Namely:
The company reported a third-quarter net loss of $853.3 million, or 94 cents a share, compared with a loss of $144.1 million, or 24 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Its adjusted loss was $73 million, adjusted for $847 million in stock-based compensation.Personally, I don't see this as a loss, because retaining strong human talents in this space will be crucial for Palantir's continued dominance in this particular space. The stock-based compensation accounts for 99.26% of its entire third quarter net loss.
Again, let that shit sink in.
Meanwhile, Palantir grew its revenue:
Palantir brought in revenue of $289 million, a 52% increase from revenue of $191 million in the third quarter last year.So long as Palantir can keep its stock-based compensation at a steady value--and I have no reason to believe that they won't--then, their continued increase in revenue will eventually outpace any such loss in the future.
But most importantly, they have 1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Sep 30th. Sitting on a pile of cash gives them operational flexibility and can help pad any unexpected issues that might arise.
Which brings us to the final big point:
Palantir and the Military
I'll just link the Q3 earnings presentation for you because it's got pretty pictures that you retards love. But here are the main points:- Palantir software is becoming the de facto operating system of US and Allied Defense
- 2-year, $91M contract with US army research lab for AI and ML development
- Enabling Mission Command for NORAD & USNORTHCOM Joint All-Domain Command & Control (N/NC JADC2)
We're moving towards an era of even greater integration and interoperability in the military--not just between different branches but between different nation's militaries as well. One of the key factors that allowed the Allies to kick the shit out of Nazi Germany was a unified command structure.
Palantir is building just that for the US and her allies.
Think of how inefficient the military is, especially a military alliance that spans multiple nations, multiple languages, and multiple different command structures.
Think of how dumb your average crayon-eating grunt is. You think Lance Corporal Fuckface is going to learn French or German or Polish so he can coordinate effectively with his counterpart in NATO and call in an airstrike? Or you think he'll just go through a simplified process of calling it in to the US chain of command, and that data gets relayed via Palantir's services to the appropriate French jet on station to deliver some ordnance?
US Army Research Lab Implication
This is the kind of shit that the US army uses AI and ML for:
- Identifying Chinese and Russian airbases, missile sites, and radars
- Significantly cut down on the amount of time a human has to sift through satellite images
N/NC JADC2 Implications
Palantir outright states that they're using AI to help provide course of action development to NORAD. It means we're one step closer to Skynet, baby! But more importantly, Palantir placed what looks to be an image of a SIGINT/ELINT op off the coast of Kamchatka.
But that's not what you should focus on. You should focus on the fact that Palantir is now a crucial part of mission command in NORAD operations. Y'all remember Desert Storm? How the US Air Force basically clowned on Saddam's army for a month straight? That shit didn't emerge in a vacuum. It took 9 months of non-stop mission planning and 24/7 command and control during the op.
Palantir's mission is to make the planning and command process of a similar op in the future far more streamlined. And given that China has more or less set a deadline for the reunification of Taiwan in 2049, the US needs to gear up for a major war in the Pacific while keeping an eye on Russia to make sure they don't try and rebuild the Soviet Union.
And guess who will be passing all those delicious bits of data back and forth that entire time?
Palantir.
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Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) announced today it was chosen by the US Army to receive one of two prototype contracts for the Common Data Fabric and Data Security solution to support network design experimentation for the Army’s next network modernization set of technology, termed Capability Set 23.Fuck all y'all haters
This marks the first time Palantir’s Gotham software is being integrated with the Army’s latest mission command software application, called the Command Post Computing Environment (CPCE), making Palantir a key partner in accelerating the Army’s modernization. CPCE is now being fielded across the force, providing commanders with better visualization tools, common applications and new server infrastructure. The prototype will work at the intersection of intelligence, mission planning and execution, providing a single, integrated solution to give commanders a global operational picture to make better data-driven decisions.
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