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hell or glory: the endless mile 48 hour race

Race Information

Goals

Goal Description Completed?
A don't quit early, do the full 48 Yes
B 100 miles Yes
C 110 miles Yes
D 116.3 miles (top 10 leaderboard) No
E podium No

Splits

Hour Mileage
1 6.5 miles
2 6.2 miles
3 5.9 miles
4 5.4 miles
5 4.9 miles
6 4.5 miles
7 4.1 miles
8 3.5 miles
9 3.7 miles
10 3.5 miles
11 3.5 miles
12 3.1 miles
13 2.1 miles
14 1.1 miles
15 3.1 miles
16 3.5 miles
17 4.3 miles
18 0 miles
19 2.8 miles
20 1.4 miles
21 2.8 miles
22 2.8 miles
23 3.2 miles
24 3 miles
25 3.2 miles
26 2 miles
27 2.8 miles
28 1.4 miles
29 2.4 miles
30 2.4 miles
31 1.6 miles
32 2.6 miles
33 2.4 miles
34 0 miles
35 0 miles
36 0 miles
37 0 miles
38 0 miles
39 0 miles
40 0 miles
41 0 miles
42 0 miles
43 0 miles
44 0 miles
45 0 miles
46 1.4 miles
47 3.8 miles
48 5.7 miles

Training

Ok, so, first of all: I did not train for this. I’ve been running all summer, but that’s not the same as training for a multiday ultra. If you’re interested in the raw numbers, check out my strava training log and see for yourself (https://www.strava.com/athletes/15875698/training/log). I’ll also provide a short summary of just how much I fucked myself going into this. In my defense, I didn’t plan to do this race, and only signed up about 3-4 weeks out from race day because I was bored. Please do not repeat my mistakes.
Okay, let’s rewind to, say, June. I’m in Pennsylvania living at my parent’s house for a month while I try to put my life back together. I’m doing the GVRAT (Laz’s virtual race, ~635 miles in 3 months). I’m just trying to maintain a base at around 40-50 mpw. June passed fairly uneventfully running-wise, with weekly mileage of 55 mi, 41 mi, 55 mi, 55 mi and a few walks/hikes sprinkled in. I was doing 1 workout per week (just kinda whatever I felt like that morning, fartleks or tempos usually). Long runs were around 13-14 miles with some quality sections here and there.
In early July, I drove back to Colorado, moved out of my old apartment that I had shared with my ex, and moved into a new place on my own. My running stayed about the same as before, but my daily walking skyrocketed. My monthly running mileage was 51 mi, 34 mi (moving week), 55 mi, 53 mi, 55 mi. When you add in walks (which I think count when you’re doing a race that will be a LOT of walking), my weekly mileage in July went 51 mi, 34 mi, 80 mi, 80 mi, 81 mi. As you can see, I was adding about an extra ~25 mi per week from walking every day after work. I had a lot more free time and while I kinda wanted to use that time to do doubles every day and bump my mileage up a lot, I knew that it maybe wasn’t the smartest option, so I settled for walking. My long runs were still around 13-15 mi (and no back-to-back long runs, let me be clear. The run the day after my long run was around 6 miles). I was still doing a weekly workout of whatever felt fun that day.
August was both a “big” month (when you count walking) and a shit month (if you look at just running). Running mileage was 47 mi, 44 mi, 40 mi, 31 mi. With walks, it was 72 mi, 74 mi, 58 mi, 68 mi. Long runs dropped a bit, to about 10-12 miles, still with zero back-to-backs. I was beginning to feel the effects of covid-seclusion-brain as well as dealing with the emotional fallout of the past few months. On the plus side, I started going to a weekly track workout with my boss and some coworkers, which helped make me feel human at least once a week.
September continued in the same vein as August, but with less walking. So, not much running AND not much walking. Truly, great training for a multiday ultra in October. But again, I wasn’t planning on running any races for the rest of 2020 so I wasn’t too bothered. Weekly mileage for September went 35 mi, 47 mi, 47 mi, 56 mi. With walks added in, it was 49 mi, 51 mi, 61 mi, 62 mi. Long runs were around 13-14 mi, and for two memorable weeks it was only 8-9 mi. Sometime in the last week of September I decided to say “fuck it” and sign up for a 48 hour race. I knew I wasn’t prepared AT ALL, but I really missed the pain cave of an ultra. This particular race also has a lot of personal meaning to me. My first ultra was a 12 hour at this race, back in 2017. For years now I’ve talked about wanting to go back and try the 24 hour or the 48 hour, and for the first time in years, I could actually do whatever race I wanted to do.
October (or at least October 1-15th) was my taper. If you can call it a taper when you’ve basically been tapering for an entire month beforehand. Weekly mileage went from 56 mi to 46 mi to 37 mi. The taper was honestly fun as hell. I felt so fit, but in more of a 5k-half marathon way. I knew I didn’t have the endurance for this dumb race, but I felt fitter than I’ve ever felt before in my life, and I was hoping that it would help at least a tiny bit.

Pre-race

So I packed and re-packed for this race approximately 26 times. I wasn’t sure if I’d want to change clothes, or socks, or shoes, or whatever. So I brought everything I could think of. I even brought a beanie and gloves, on the off chance that it got chilly for a bit overnight (note: this is what the experts call foreshadowing).
I was crashing with a friend before and after the race, which made things easier (and cheaper). Now, this next part may be gross for any men reading but I am a firm believer that A. get over it, it’s normal and B. it is important to know if you want to get the full picture of my race. So, because I am an incredibly lucky person, I managed to start my period on race morning. While this is good hormonally (women tend to get a bit of a performance boost from the drop in hormone levels), it added a nice extra layer of complexity to my next 48 hours. Yay! pre-race 'fit in my sweet artc singlet
Anyway, after that lovely realization, I drove over to the race start and started prepping my stuff. A friend of mine was coming down from Georgia that day to hang out and camp and then run the 24 hour the next day. I knew I could use his tent and setup once he got there, so I just kinda dumped my stuff on the ground and vaguely organized it so that I could see everything easily. Visual proof of the poorly organized aid pile I put on my windbreaker (it was drizzling and mid-50 degrees F at the start) and waited around until 8:55 am. With 5 minutes to go before race start, I meandered over to the start line to hear the race instructions and size up my competition (LOL). I knew from stalking ultrasignup that there were a few women with a lot of multiday/48 hour experience, including one woman twice my age who had just done ~140+ miles at a 48 hour in February. I was absolutely expecting her to kick my ass. I’m fairly used to getting my butt handed to me by people twice my age or older in ultras. It gives me warm fuzzies, and a hope that when I’m their age I can be that person. I also saw Ed Ettinghausen (a legend in multiday racing… you may know him as the guy who always dresses up like a jester) and Ray Krolewicz (another legend in ultrarunning, at least in my opinion). Ray had been at this race back in 2017 when I ran it for the first time. I wasn’t sure if he remembered chatting with me briefly while I was running the 12 hour. But I remembered. He called me out in the first hour, asking why I was running so fast when I was doing the 12 hour and telling me to slow down before I destroyed my legs. And after the race, he told me I needed to keep doing ultras because I had some talent (which obviously stuck with me, if I remember it three years later). I crossed my fingers that we’d get some “walk and talk” time later in the race, because I distinctly remembered him being hilarious and great at getting me out of a shitty mood and I figured I’d definitely need that at some point.

Race

How does one distill 48 hours into text? Let’s find out. I left myself voice memo’s at various points of the race, because I knew it would all begin to blend together in my head afterwards. Some of them are funny and some of them are a bit sad. But that’s life, I guess. The concept of running 100 miles in 24 hours has sometimes been referred to as “life in a day”. I’d say 48 hours follows that idea, but more like two lives in two days. There are peaks and valleys. You’ll feel like you may never be happy again, or you’re done running for the rest of the race. But it never always gets worse, and sometimes it even gets better and suddenly you’re running sub-10 minute pace at hour 46 and you don’t really know what’s happening but you’re definitely not going to question it. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Hours 1-6: (9 am - 3 pm)
So, at 9 am sharp, the gun goes off and we all start to shuffle across the line. No one is going very fast, which makes a lot of sense when you remember that we have to keep going for two days straight. One girl gaps everyone by quite a bit by about half a mile in, and my dumb competitive side starts to kick in. I had conveniently forgotten that there were relay teams in the race, and it never even crossed my mind that she might be a relay runner who only had to run for a few hours. This was mistake #1 (of many!). While trying to make sure I kept this girl in sight, I completely abandoned my tentative plan to run no faster than 10 min/mile in the first few hours, and blazed through the first ~4ish hours at sub-10 pace, including pauses at the aid stations and my personal aid pile. At this point, I was already starting to feel my lack of long runs in training. Huge shocker, I know. It was a little terrifying to think that I still had 44 hours to go. So I just tried to stop thinking about it, and focus on the hour I was currently in. At one point, I texted a friend to ask what % of critical power I should aim for during a 48 hour race, partially as a joke. He told me no matter what, don’t go over 80%. Oops. I had definitely been routinely going over 80%, and only barely averaging below it for lap power. I was beginning to slightly regret not actually making any sort of pacing plan before the race started.
Hours 5 & 6 were where I really started making more of an effort to walk. The course has 4 “hills” (which have maybe a combined elevation gain of ~25 ft), and I used them as my walk cues. Some people do a very structured walk/run (25 minute run/5 minute walk, 4 minute run/1 minute walk, etc), but I prefer to just do everything by feel. Doing it based on course landmarks seemed easier to keep track of, instead of having to constantly look at my watch and do math, or having to program intervals into the watch ahead of time. I averaged about 13 min/mile for these hours, and about 11 min/mile for the first six hours altogether.
Hours 6-12: (3 pm - 9 pm)
This 6 hour block progressed much like hours 5 & 6. At around the 9 hour mark, I began recording periodic voice memos to myself as a way to try to remember how I felt at different points of the race. I knew it would all start to blend together in my mind, so I wanted to have a concrete record of how I felt, especially the bad sections. I have a tendency to forget all the shitty parts of the race afterwards, which I think is a survival mechanism in my dumb brain that lets me keep doing these races. In my first voice memo, recorded at about 9.5 hours in, I talked about how I was doing a lot of walking because my legs felt dead and my adductor longus was screaming bloody murder at me. A woman who had been consistently about one lap behind me the entire race was putting forth a concentrated effort to catch up and pass me. She was doing a lot more running than I was at that point, and basically had her own personal pacer (a guy who was also doing the 48 hour who spent the entire race running right ahead of her or beside her and giving her encouragement). In the voice memo, I make it very clear that I do not care at all if she catches me or passes me, because there are 38 hours left in the race at this point and there’s still so much that can happen or go wrong for either of us. The real race probably hasn’t even started yet! At around 8:30 pm, I chatted on the phone with my mom and dad briefly, catching them up on how I was feeling and how the race was going. It was beginning to get a little chilly now that the sun was down. These six hours passed at a 17 min/mile pace, which tells you that I wasn’t kidding when I said I was doing a lot of walking at this point.
Hours 12-18: (9 pm - 3 am)
This is about when things begin to get a little blurry. I remember starting to get cold and putting on all the layers I had (a sweatshirt, sweatpants, beanie, gloves, and buff). At around 9 pm, I recorded another voice memo, where I said that I had been exclusively walking for awhile and had taken a quick nap earlier. I remember this nap, because it was another huge mistake. I had planned to just nap on the ground, with an inflatable pillow and small microfiber towel I had brought with me. This was dumb. Turns out, lying on the cold dirt while feeling very cold will just make you feel even more cold. After lying on the ground, shaking uncontrollably from the cold and getting zero sleep, I eventually got up and kept walking. Hour 12.5 face I tried to warm myself up with a cup of hot chicken soup but that only helped while I was drinking it. Once my tiny cup ran out, I started getting cold again.
At 16.5 hours, I recorded another voice memo to myself. I explained that in the hours between 9 pm and 1 am, I had gone through a huge rough patch of being very cold and having a hard time moving forward at any sort of respectable walking pace. I finally had a burst of inspiration and went to my rental car, turned it on, blasted the heat for 15 minutes to warm up, and started moving again, feeling much better than before. After I warmed up, I ran into Ray K. If you’ve done any fixed time race, especially on the east coast, and you dont know who Ray is, you might live under a rock. As he loved telling me, he’s been doing ultras “since before you were born”. According to ultrasignup, his ultrarunning history predates my birth by about 25 years. I walked with him for probably about an hour or two, and it honestly saved my entire night. For one, his walking speed is a lot faster than mine, so he helped get my butt moving faster than I would have if I was on my own. More importantly, he is one of the chattiest people I’ve ever met, and he kept me entertained the entire time by telling me stories about Yiannis Kouros and Bruce Fordyce, about how he kind of snuck into Western States one time, and about his adventures doing Vol State and Heart of the South in the same summer.
After getting to around the 16 hou100k mark and parting ways with Ray for a bit, I decided to try to jog at least 30 seconds or so each lap to try to break up the monotony. After that first spurt of jogging, I realized that my legs felt great running. Suddenly, I was spending most of the lap running. I even started throwing in some surges of faster running to loosen my legs up. I shed a lot of my warm layers because the extra exertion was making me start to sweat. I made it about an hour or so at about 12 min/mile pace (including my stops at the aid station… I was beginning to get the nickname of “Hot Chocolate Girl” because I kept getting cups of hot chocolate to keep myself warm). After this sudden burst of energy dropped off, I decided to take another ~30 minute nap in my warm car. These six hours passed at an average pace of 25 min/mile, which includes my periodic ~30 minute naps where I was blissfully moving at a 0 mph pace.
Hours 18-24: (3 am - 9 am) After getting up from my latest nap, things began to get a little pathetic. There’s a handful of voice memos recorded that are just muffled crying noises intermixed with exclamations of “I’m just so cold” and “I feel like I’ll never be warm again”. I honestly don’t remember many details from about 3 am until 6ish. It all blends together into an overwhelming feeling of cold and misery. At around 6 am, I recorded yet another crying voice memo about how the sun was finally coming up and how happy it makes me (which sounds slightly odd, as I’m audibly crying while saying that).
Luckily for my morale, once the sun started to rise, two things happened: I remembered that hot food exists, and my friends and family started to wake up. I started grabbing bacon every few laps, and had a religious experience with the best fried egg I’ve ever eaten in my entire life (and which I ate with my hands, to try to avoid carrying a paper plate and fork with me for an entire lap). The hot food (and calories!) helped bring me back from the deep pit I was in. Turns out, trying to subsist on hot chocolate and the occasional handful of skittles isn’t enough calories and can lead to grumpiness.
At around 7:30, my lovely friend Katie called me and we talked on the phone for an hour while she did her morning run and caught me up on things I was missing in the group chat and I gave her all the ridiculous details of my disaster of a dating life. It was an amazing pick-me-up and helped get my morning off to a good start. Day two, here we come!
At the end of the first 24 hours, I had somewhere between 82 and 84 miles, depending on how much you trust my GPS (I don’t have access to the detailed lap splits yet, so the actual mileage is still unknown). I didn’t realize it at the time, because my watch had reset & saved my first activity somewhere around hour 17 while I was in my car warming up and charging my watch. Thanks garmin! I was convinced I was around ~80 miles, which was a disappointment. I had reached 82 miles in my last 24 hour (which took place during a mild blizzard and I had been similarly undertrained for), and I had kinda been hoping to at least match that mileage during this race, as stupid and ill-advised as that sounds. These 6 hours passed at an average pace of 23 min/mile, which is honestly surprising because I could have sworn I was moving as slowly or slower than the 6 hours preceding.
Hours 24-30: (9 am - 3 pm, 2nd day)
At 9 am, the 24 hour, 12 hour, and 6 hour races started. At first, I thought maybe the addition of more runners beyond the ~40 or so 48 hour runners would be energizing. Instead, it just kind of annoyed me. Getting passed by so many people and almost getting shoved off the path by the wave of runners made me even grumpier. I was also feeling quite jealous that other people could physically run while I was stuck in a painful shuffle. On the plus side, a few friends had started their races, so I got to see some new friendly faces out there while they were lapping me.
Beyond the addition of the new runners, these hours are mostly a blur of pain and more misery, just less cold than the nighttime hours. At around 26.5 hours, I recorded another voice memo to myself. I was stuck moving at a slow shuffling walk because my legs hurt so bad I couldn’t muster up any gumption to try to move faster. I also made a plea to my future self to PLEASE pack warm clothes next time, no matter what the weather forecast said. It’s easy to get stuck in the running mindset of “oh well 50 degrees is warm, that’s shorts and tshirt weather”. Which is true when you’re running, but less so when you’re walking slowly in the dark. I was able to talk to my sister at around noon, and my parents at around 1:30. Those conversations weren’t quite as helpful as my earlier chat with Katie. I’ve noticed that sometimes when I talk to my family or extremely close friends during a race, it can actually fuck up my headspace even more because I feel like I can dump all my shitty feelings into our conversation and cry and complain so much that it just ends up making me even grumpier. I was yet again moving at a blistering 26 min/mile pace thanks to my dead legs and a few quick car naps here and there. I had noticed that taking a quick 15-30 minute nap had the tendency to cut some of my grumpiness and bad mood, at least temporarily.
Hours 30-36: (3 pm - 9 pm, 2nd day)
At around hour 30, I recorded my last voice memo, again complaining about not being able to move well and being reduced to a painful shuffle. I desperately wanted to be able to move faster because I had promised myself that once I hit 100 miles I could take a longer break. I had figured out that at my current pace, I’d reach 100 miles at around sunset and I really wanted to not have to be out in the cold again if I could help it. I knew it would go poorly for me. I was having some big issues with thermoregulation already, and the falling temperatures would likely make it worse. I have a distinct memory of walking along the path, shivering and cold with goosebumps on my arms, while in full direct sunlight and 70 degree temperatures. If I was cold in those conditions, nighttime was going to be hell.
Mile 95 face, very thrilled to be alive At around mile 95, my friend Kelly started walking with me to keep me company. She had originally signed up for the 6 hour race, but switched up to the 12 hour mid-race. I felt bad that she was walking with me (because I was moving so slowly) while she was technically racing and could probably be moving a lot faster if she was on her own. Walking with her for the 5 miles to reach 100 was so so helpful. At first I was kind of resistant, because I tend to like to be on my own when I’m feeling shitty, but about halfway through I realized just how nice and distracting it was to have someone to talk to. I think I finally get why people like having a pacer during races. I know, I’m a genius. After I finally hit 100 miles (in my donut compression socks, Hoka slides, and Javelina sweatshirt… really looking like an athlete), Ray told me I had to do at least one more mile before taking my long break. He told me that just in case I never got out on the course again, I’d at least be ahead of all the people who quit after reaching 100 miles.
Mile 100 (with Ray)!
Right after getting my buckle
With Kelly
So, Kelly and I did one more painful lap and then parted ways. I headed to my car to finally change my clothes a bit (tracksmith shorts to BOA poop emoji shorts) and just chill for a moment. I got in the car at about 7:30 pm and stayed there for the rest of this 6 hour block.
Hours 36-42: (9 pm - 3 am, 2nd day)
I spent pretty much the entire 6 hours in my car, huddled up and hiding from the cold. I was semi-traumatized from the night before, when I felt like I would never be warm again. I was just so terrified about it hitting me even harder the second night, after feeling cold and getting goosebumps while walking in direct sunlight in 70 degree F weather. I settled into a routine of starting the car, blasting the heat for 5 minutes to get the entire car nice and warm, stretching out on the reclined front drivers seat, trying to sleep for 45 minutes, waking up, and restarting the cycle again. It was miserable. I bargained with myself, berated myself for being such a wimp, and alternated back and forth between deciding to quit with 101 miles or deciding to get back out on the course once the sun came up and gutting out a few more hours.
Hours 42-48: (3 am - 9 am, 2nd day)
At around 6:30 am, with the sun peeking over the trees, I told myself to buck the fuck up and opened my car door. I started shuffling around the course again after grabbing some more bacon and eggs and reassuring the aid station cook that I was indeed still in the race after he hadn’t seen me all night long. I had 2.5 hours to go, and I started trying to do mental math to figure out how many more miles I could get. I figured I was moving at just over 2 mph, so 110 miles was likely out of reach. I had pretty much entirely given up on running anymore, to the point that I was walking around sockless in my Hoka recovery slides. Pro tip: don't run in slides During that first hour, I noticed my walking speed was getting faster and my legs were starting to feel… not normal, but way better than they had yesterday afternoon. I began to throw in little 30 second bursts of slow jogging. Those bursts started getting longer and longer, and suddenly I was almost fully running around the course in my slides. After a lap or two like that, I made a brief pit stop to change back into running shoes and set off again. Somehow grinning like a psychopath again
I jogged a lap with the aid station cook after he chased me down while drinking a beer, and we traded stories for a bit until we got back to the start finish area. As I noticed the clock turning over to the final hour, I resolved to push myself and give whatever I had left. During my first ultra, one of the volunteers told me that it’s important to always save something for the last hour. While that may have been more practical for a shorter fixed time race, I took it to heart and was determined to use whatever I had saved. I ran almost every single step of that last hour, averaging ~10:30 min/mile. I didn’t know what was happening. My legs felt so great. I was the only 48 hour runner who was actually running, and I was passing people left and right. Once we were down to about 15 minutes left, I grabbed my blue flag that I’d use to mark my last partial lap. I switched my watch face to just show the current time, because I knew I wanted to really empty the tank in the last few minutes. With about 5 minutes to go, I started to really push. My last mile ended up being at 8:40 pace, and with about a minute to go I started sprinting and was flying by the 48 hour shufflers at 6:00 min/mile pace. As I was dying in these last seconds, the airhorn blew and I skidded to a stop and stuck my flag in the dirt. I knew I had managed to hit at least 110 miles, and maybe 111 depending on the distance of that last partial lap.

Post-race

After the race officially finished and I checked my preliminary mileage (somehow they had me at 111 laps!), I chatted with Ray again while the RD’s congratulated the podium (I just missed out, placing 4th F and 9th overall). I told him how I was already planning my next 48 hour, and that I had a list of things to change for next time. He told me that I had a gift and a lot of potential to do well in the sport based on how he saw me running during the first night and at the end, and how I came back out to keep going after my long break on the second night. I honest to god almost started crying while I was standing there talking to him. He didn’t remember, but he said something extremely similar to me the last time we were at a race together. To have someone who I respect so much and who has such a long history and a lot of experience in the sport, tell me that I have potential and can do well… it meant so much. It’s easy to brush that stuff off when it comes from my friends or family, especially when they don’t really know anything about ultrarunning, but hearing it come from someone like Ray is different.
After recovering from that moment, I shuffled back to my car and drove an hour to my friends apartment, where I proceeded to crash on the couch for several hours, wake up briefly to eat an entire pizza and watch The Addams Family (because I learned he’d NEVER SEEN IT), eat a giant bowl of pasta, and then fall asleep for the night. I napped on and off all morning on Monday before heading home. While I had definitely been shuffling around like a grandma with a fresh hip replacement on Sunday, by Monday morning I felt surprisingly good. I didn’t have any blisters, my toenails all seemed to be in decent shape, and while my legs felt a little sore, they didn’t feel anywhere near as dead as I was expecting. I even did a test jog to and from my car while getting my bag to pack up and it felt….. kinda good? Upon arriving home, I was able to walk up the three flights of stairs to my apartment with zero issues. I went back to work on Tuesday like normal. I also started running again on Tuesday, just a short 20 minute shakeout on a flat loop near my apartment. I’ve had a few people tell me i’m being an idiot for running again so soon, and plenty of other people who are just shocked that I’d even want to run this soon. All I know is that my legs feel amazing, I don’t feel very fatigued, and my body just wants to run. So I want to listen to it. I don’t have any blisters, my gait is completely normal, and I don’t have any lasting muscle fatigue (that I can tell). I’m restricting myself to nothing longer than an hour for this first week back at least. I might throw in some hill strides and a short tempo next week if I’m still feeling great.
My running “superpower” has always been twofold: not getting injured (which Ray tells me isn’t JUST because I’m young, thank you) and recovering fast. I eat a lot of food and sleep a lot, especially after a race. My BMI is nowhere near the “underweight” range (and yes, I know it’s a flawed measurement) and I’ve never lost my period or had a bone stress injury. I may not be the fastest, but I like to think I can outlast my competition, both in training (by not having to take time off for injury) and in a race setting. I’ve historically had no issues doing the occasional Super Week where I double my weekly mileage (or more). After my first ultra, I remember feeling pretty creaky and hobbling out some 10-12 minute miles in the following days (I was run streaking at the time). With each subsequent “big effort”, I’ve found my recovery is faster and I feel normal again a lot quicker. I know there is likely still some residual stuff my body is dealing with even though I feel great, so I’m trying really hard to not do too much too soon. It’s hard!!
As far as the future goes, I’m signed up for two 2021 races so far: a 24 hour in April (that was a deferral roll-over from 2020), and Western States in June (which was also a 2020 roll-over). I’m also going to be rolling over my 2020 Quad Rock 50 miler registration, which will be in May. Right now, my tentative plan is to do some 10k-focused training until the end of January, at which point I’ll start lengthening my long runs again in prep for Western training. I still haven’t decided if I want to try hiring a coach again. Western is really important to me, and I want to make sure I give it the best I possibly can, but I just don’t know if I’m really a “coachable athlete”. As much as I want to see if I can get to 100 miles in the 24 hour, I realize it probably wouldn’t be the smartest choice if I’m going to really try to nail Western States two months later. So I’ll probably use that as a tuneup (maybe 50k-50mi) along with Quad Rock. I’d really like to get a faster Boston qualifier under my belt (I think I could go at least sub-3:25,and Ray thinks I could probably run about 3:20 if I actually did my long runs), but I don’t think I’ll have time for a full training cycle + race next year with Western in the middle.
With regards to future multiday races… I already know I want to give the 48 hour another shot to see if I can fix my mistakes and start getting into some real mileage. With how great my legs felt at the end and in the middle of the night randomly, I think I’d definitely like to try some even longer multiday races and stage races. I know everyone says to save the multiday stuff until you’re “older”, but I feel so drawn to it in the same way I feel drawn to races like Hardrock and Western States. I just want to see what I can do at something very stupid and hard, and I especially want to see what I can do now that I know a bit more of what to expect. There’s no glory in multiday races, which honestly is part of the appeal. Almost no one knows what a “good” result is for a 48 hr, a 72 hr, a 144 hr race. No one cares. It’s wonderful knowing that no one cares or knows if you did well or can measure you in any way. I also love the sense of camaraderie in these races, especially the small looped courses. You’re able to interact with everyone if you want to, while in a normal race setting you might not be able to (because they’re either way ahead or way behind you). I’ve gotten shit before for not being a “real” ultrarunner because I don’t only run trail races, and been told that these short loop timed races aren’t the same or they’re somehow “lesser”, which I think is bullshit. I personally believe this type of race could absolutely break a good trail ultrarunner, and they shouldn’t be underestimated or dismissed just because they’re “road races” or because they don’t traverse grand mountain ranges. I love mountain running, but I also love being able to absolutely shut out the outside stimuli that can distract you from the pain and just be present in the moment without having to worry about tripping on a root or making a wrong turn or getting lost or being eaten by a bear.
Made with a new race report generator created by herumph.
submitted by cPharoah to artc

MVP Tier Shooting list (WARNING: LONG)

Just a quick intro, because there’s a lot to get to. Since the 3-pointer is a part of every superstar’s game now, I wanted to see how good every MVP of the 3-point era were at shooting and rank them – shooting is literally the fundamental skill of basketball, but is it typical for the very best players to be the best shooter? The higher the tier, the better (although to be honest I didn’t really know where to put the Rose/AI/Westbrook tier, do with that what you like), and the list is in descending order – each player written about is a better shooter than the one above him. (Also, this is a repost from nba -- I legit just learned this subreddit exists today, and y'all seem to be a pretty cool bunch of dorks -- I say "dorks" as the highest of compliments, for reasons that should become apparent if you finish this monster of a post.)
Tier 8: Shaquille O’Neal
Shaquille O’Neal – 0.0 3PA, 0.45 3P%, 52.7 FT%
This is what interests me about Shaq: he broke both of his wrists at 11 years old, and they never healed properly, making it impossible for him to snap his wrist properly and develop anything approaching a passable jump shot or free throw stroke. (It’s been argued that Shaq had a fixable mechanical flaw or should have shot underhand, but we can talk about that another time.)
Shaq’s wrist issues meant that his scoring arsenal was essentially limited to a jump hook over his left shoulder or a drop-step leading to a dunk or right-handed bank shot. He also happened to be one of the most physically imposing big men of all time.
So the question becomes: if you have a player with the ability to create and convert shots at the immediate basket area at a historically high rate, is it the worst thing in the world if he is physically incapable of taking a difficult shot? How many missed free throws is it worth to have a dominant post player who never wastes possessions by falling in love with his 18-footer? Is it worth giving up the ability to dump the ball to Shaq at the mid-post and get a decent fadeaway out of it late in the clock in order to guarantee he’ll never take one early in the clock?
The sheer terror of what Shaq would have been if he hit 75-80% of his free throws keep me from going as far as saying Shaq’s messed up wrists were a blessing in disguise (we’ll talk more about this when discussing why Shaun Marion is accidentally one of the 5 most influential players of the 21st century), but I think the floor spacing and shot creation teams gave up by accepting Shaq’s limitations may not have been worth Shaq being forced to take every shot from a high-percentage area. When you consider Shaq’s somewhat laisse-faire approach to the game and prideful streak, it’s not terribly hard to imagine an alternate-universe version of Shaq firing up shot after shot in attempts to capture the scoring title and daring his coaches to bench him for it.
Tier 7: True Big Men
Moses Malone – 0.0 3PA, 0.96% 3PT%, 76.0% FT%
Gonna be honest, I know pretty much jack shit about Moses Malone other than that he was a dominant offensive rebounder and was one of the first players to win a Finals MVP with a team that did not acquire him on draft day. (There were 5 of them in 2011, now there are like 40.) Considering he lived underneath the basket grabbing those offensive boards and shot 49.5% from the field over his career, I’m assuming he wasn’t much of a marksman. although I do know enough about him to know his FG% was dragged down because he did a lot of his damage playing volleyball under the basket but ultimately coming away with the bucket. I could be wrong, though. Solid FT% for a center.
Tim Duncan – 0.1 3PA, 17.8% 3PT%, 69.6% FT%
I enjoy putting Tim Duncan all the way down here while being a massive Tim Duncan fan. When people talk about all the things that made Tim Duncan great – his efficient, no-flash approach, the beauty of his banker from the left block, his footwork and passing from the post, his quiet brand of leadership, his willingness to play whatever role his team asked him to, his defensive acumen, his work ethic, and his intelligence, they tend to forget a very important part of why Tim Duncan was so great: TIM DUNCAN WAS A FUCKING MONSTER.
I do not know why people are so willing to forget that Tim Duncan was a fucking monster. Perhaps it’s because, despite spending the vast majority of his career as a center, he got labeled as “The Best Power Forward of All Time” because he began his career next to David Robinson. Maybe it’s because nobody can really look like a fucking monster while standing next to David Robinson. Maybe it’s because he spent so much time as a crafty veteran. In any case, Tim Duncan in his prime was a huge man who would put his left shoulder into your chest, push you under the basket, and flip in a hook shot as you caught your breath. It was only once enough of those put the fear of god in his defender that he’d turn to his right shoulder and deliver that boring bank shot. He had an odd jumper where he put his guide hand under the basket that went in a decent amount of the time and his free throws, which he shot in one quick yank like he was trying to get them over with as fast as possible, were never a hack-a-Duncan level weakness, but he was a pretty bad shooter. The “Big Fundamental” is one of only 2 MVPs in the 3-point era with a career FT% under 70%. However, the “Big Fundamental” is also a fucking monster.
David Robinson – 0.1 3PA, 25% 3PT%, 73.6% 3PT%
Another person whose demeanor tends to overshadow the fact he was a goddamn freak of nature. David Robinson was literally a super-soldier. Just a good enough outside shooter to get himself in trouble sometimes (surprisingly low career FG% of 51.8%, considering he didn’t make 3s, although his TS% was always excellent because he lived at the line), but he also had enough shot creation ability to drop an extraordinarily petty 71-point game, which I respect. Discussion question: what if David Robinson had come into the league at 19 instead of 24?
Hakeem Olajuwon – 0.1 3PA, 20.2% 3PT%, 71.2% FT%
Seems low, right? Hakeem, with the beautiful fadeaway? Well, Hakeem took too many fucking jumpshots. He could make them, absolutely, but a guy with Hakeem’s physical ability and skill in the post has no goddamn business having a career FG% of 51.2% and a TS% of 55.3%. (The league average TS% over his career was 53.5%.) This is an idea I’ll expand more on, but in every competitive game of imperfect information, the player acting with initiative has to balance his action between how efficient it is and how deceptive it is. I think Hakeem chose the deceptive option too much. I call Hakeem’s choice to settle for more difficult (and aesthetically pleasing) shots the Ian Malcolm syndrome – he got so caught up wondering if he could make those shots that he never asked whether or not he should.
However, it can certainly be argued that against better defenses, such as ones teams face deep in the playoffs, deception gains value, as better defenses will be better at allowing their opponents to get efficient shots. Hakeem and his destructive playoff performances are certainly a good argument for this.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – 0.0 3PA, 0.56% 3PT%, 72.1% FT%
Fun fact: Like Shaq, Kareem made exactly one 3-pointer in his career. This is a tricky one. Like another 6-time NBA champion you’ll see later on this list, Kareem was essentially completely unique as a shooter. On the one hand, Kareem was nobody’s idea of a stretch big, didn’t have much of a turnaround, and wasn’t a particularly good free-throw shooter.
On the other hand, he made 15,837 of the 28,307 shots he took (55.9%), and a whole lot of those 23,307 shots were skyhooks. And Kareem’s skyhooks were nothing like the jump hooks you see today. In fact, a very good answer to the question “why does nobody shoot the skyhook anymore?” is “it’s a fucking miracle anyone was able make that shot effectively, let alone someone 7 foot 2.” Look at this shit – a lot of those are closer to midrange shots than post shots, and he’s flicking the ball over his goddamn head with his body perpendicular to the backboard. That should not be possible.
Hence, the question of “is the skyhook a ‘shot’” becomes crucial to determining if Kareem was a fairly poor shooter or one of the best shooters ever. I’m going to put him at the top of this tier and shrug my shoulders. Kareem was really good.
Tier 6: Big Men With Some Stretch
Giannis Antetokounmpo – 2.1 3PA, 28.4% 3PT%, 72.2% FT%
First things first – Despite the fact Giannis is his team’s primary ballhandler and could easily be classified as a wing, I’m calling him a big. He’s 6-11, 242, shoots under 30% from 3, and a full quarter of his shots were dunks the first year he won MVP. He’s not not a big man.
I am writing this on the night of August 31st, 2020, a pretty bad night in Giannis’ career. The Miami Heat have just taken a 1-0 lead against Giannis’ Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and Giannis was held to 18 points on 6-12 shooting from the field and 4-12 from the line. It currently looks like Giannis may have a true Achilles’ heel when it comes to teams that can wall off the paint effectively, and looking forward his shooting stroke seems built more for catch-and-shoot situations than it is for keeping defenses honest off the dribble. This all may change in a few weeks, so hang with me here.
Giannis’ rise to two-time MVP was atypical – generally, hyper-athletic players ascend to the MVP level when they “round out” their game by developing a jumper. Giannis won his first MVP by packing on muscle and doubling down on attacking the paint. In his first MVP season, his 3PT% fell from 30.7% to 25.6%, his FT% fell from 76.0% to 72.9%. (This season, Giannis’ overall effectiveness went up even though his FT% was a truly abysmal 63.3%.) He also dunked the ball 279 times last season and 197 times this year. Instead of working on his backhand, Giannis found more ways to run around his forehand. The next several weeks will show if that’s enough to take the Bucks where they want to go. Giannis is allowed to join the Warriors when LeBron retires and not before.
Charles Barkley – 1.9 3PA, 26.6% 3PT%, 73.5% FT%
Charles makes it easier than anyone else, especially pre-shot tracking era, to do a “loss leader” analysis of his shot selection. His 26.6% 3PT% for his career is the lowest among qualified players. He also had an absolutely ludicrous career TS% of 61.2% (league average TS% over his career was 53.5%), made 58% of his career 2-pointers, and led the league in 2-point shooting percentage 5 times in a row between 1986 and 1991.
Given that data, it’s fairly easy to conclude that Charles should have just pocketed the 3-point shot, but let’s do a little experiment. Let’s assume 2 things: that Charles was taking a relatively high percentage of 3-pointers compared to long 2-point jumpers, and the 3-pointers he did take helped “keep the defense honest” and opened up the floor for his drives. (It should be noted that Charles’ overall efficiency pretty much fell off a cliff from 2-point range as his athleticism dipped at age 30, so we’re talking about prime Charles here.)
Given those assumptions, did Charles Barkley take the correct amount of 3s? For our case study, we’re going to compare Barkley’s 89-90 season to his 90-91 season, as these were the last two years he led the league in 2-point percentage and he changed his shot selection fairly dramatically.
In 1989, Charles averaged 25.2 on 60%/21.7%/72.2%, for a league-leading TS% of 66.1%. In 1990, Charles averaged 27.6 points per game on 57%/28.4%/72.2%, for a TS% of 63.5%, which broke his four-year streak of leading the league in TS%. Charles also almost doubled his 3-pointers taken per game, going from 1.2 3PA per game to 2.3. Again, we’re going to assume that Charles could not have simply turned those 3-pointers into 60%+ 2-pointers, or that he could have shot the exact same percentage from 2 if those 3-point attempts simply disappeared entirely. Without further ado:
A 28.4% 3-point shot has a TS% value of 42.6%. The league average TS% in 1989 was 53.4%. This means that every Barkley 3 had an expected value of 0.972 points per attempt, compared to a league average of 1.068. This means Barkley cost his team .096 points per 3-point attempt in ’89. Barkley’s 2-point percentage that season was 59.7%, for a TS% (we’re not even factoring in FTr) of 1.194. That means the 76ers gained .187 points every time Charles shot a 2-pointer.
This means, by my quick-and-dirty math, Charles “gave back” the added value of his 2-point attempts about every 2 times he shot a 3 – if Charles had shot 1.95 as many 3s as 2s, he would have had league-average efficiency in 1991.
Based on the above, Charles taking 1.6 more 3-point attempts per game in 90-91 to get 1.4 more 2-point attempts per game was worth it for the 76ers, although not by an overwhelming amount. The 3s made Charles less efficient, but Charles’ efficiency was so far above the league average that it was worth sacrificing some of Charles’ efficiency for volume for the 76ers. (This version of the shot creation vs. efficiency argument is a variation on “is it selfish for your best hitter to take a 6-pitch walk with 2 outs and a man on 2nd?” question brought over from baseball.)
Forgive my math, especially since I’m not very good at it. The point is that Charles was a pretty bad shooter, but his 3-point attempts were probably worth the extra 2-point attempts they generated for him.
Karl Malone – 0.2 3PA, 27.4% 3PT%, 74.2% FT%
Alright, it’s the first person I’d call a good shooter! Malone is the exception to two rules: that players improve from the foul line way less often than you think, especially after their third season (Malone went from a 48% foul shooter his rookie year to 70% his 3rd year, and ended up with a career FT% of 74.2%), and that if you’re going to take a spot-up shot, you should always take it from beyond the arc, because nobody shoots better than 50% on long 2s – Malone shot 53.6% on long 2s in 96-97 and 52.8% on long 2s in 97-98. He ducked under that for the last years of his career and there isn’t tracking data from before 96-97, but it’s safe to say he was really good at knocking down mid-range jumpers.
Kevin Garnett – 0.4 3PA, 27.5% 3PT%, 78.9% FT%
We got robbed of the best version of KG, right? Not only did his giant pre-cap contract and the Joe Smith fiasco keep him from ever getting a good supporting cast in Minnesota, he was so much better suited to the post-handcheck, pace-and-space era (and no, it is not the “everyone arbitrarily decided to shoot a bunch of 3s” era) than the era he played in. The MVP version of KG lived on midpost fadeaways, and the version who won a championship played defense and shot spot-up 20-footers. Look at what Anthony Davis gets to do with LeBron feeding him the ball and the freedom to go beyond the arc, or what Giannis is doing, and tell me KG wasn’t tragically ahead of his time.
An aside: “KG went undefeated in the 2000 Olympic team’s 1-on-1 tournament” is one of my favorite basketball tall tales that are probably true, along with “when the UCLA Freshman team with Kareem scrimmaged the varsity team, who had just had an undefeated national championship season and were about to win another championship, Kareem fucking destroyed them,” and “lane violations were created because Wilt started dunking all his free throws in high school.”
Tier 5: Guards Who Weren’t Terribly Good at Shooting
Russell Westbrook – 3.7 3PA, 30.5% 3PT%, 79.9% FT%
It should be noted that Russ’ shooting is getting worse. He was a reliable free throw shooter during the first part of his career, and was a passable if below-average jump shooter, but his jump shot and free throws have both been trending downwards. (His FT% did bounce back to 76.3% this season after last season’s 65.6% nightmare.)
It’s not the most unique observation that Russ has more in common with Charles Barkley than just about any player, especially on the micro-sized Rockets, who traded away their center to leverage Russ’ strengths (his rebounding and ability to attack the basket) and minimize his glaring weakness (shooting).
However, while Charles managed to be hyper-efficient while hemorrhaging points from the 3-point line, Russ has not. Russ’ career TS% is 53.0%, with the league average over the course of Russ’ career being 54.5%. The reasons for this are essentially “all of the reasons” – a higher proportion of Russ’ shots over his career have been 3s, his free throw rate is lower than Barkley’s was, and most importantly, his career FG% on 2-point shots (46.9%) has been lower than the league average (49.6%). Russ is effective at the basket and nowhere else, and that hasn’t been a formula for efficiency for him.
Allen Iverson – 3.7 3PA, 31.3% 3PT%, 78.0% FT%
Would an efficient version of Allen Iverson been a better version of Allen Iverson? In the eternal struggle between shot creation and efficiency, Iverson is all the way on the side of shot creation. His ability to create a decent shot for himself is at a historic level, but it was a struggle for him to create particularly good shots – his career TS% was 51.8% against a league average of 52.8%.
Conventional Wisdom on Iverson is, of course, that he was saddled with horrible teammates during his prime years in Philadelphia, and I’m not arguing that he played with a particularly talented supporting cast. During his MVP season, the players who got the most minutes after Iverson were George Lynch, Aaron McKie, Tyrone Hill, Theo Ratliff, and Eric Snow, which is a war crime. (Dikembe was injured for the majority of the 2000-01 season.)
However, let’s flip this on its head for just a second and make the presumption that resource management is a crucial part of team-building. For example, if you spend the same amount of money for a good shooter as you do for a bad one, the bad shooter will be good enough at defense to have his value, in a vacuum, be exactly as good as the good shooter’s. (The draft, player empowerment, and other factors mean this isn’t quite the case in the actual NBA, but it makes enough sense as a concept.)
During the seasons Iverson played under Larry Brown, the 76ers chose to allocate their resources towards defense. They were a top-5 team in defensive efficiency from Iverson’s rookie season until Brown’s last year with the team, 2002-03, when they finished 12th in defensive efficiency. (They lost to the Pistons in the playoffs that year, Larry Brown said “fuck it, I’d rather be with that team than keep trying to make it work with this guard who shoots all the time but can’t shoot,” and won a championship with them the next season. Larry Brown was Kevin Durant before Kevin Durant.)
Iverson’s role on these teams was to be a sin-eater. Since the 76ers spent their resources on extremely good defensive players who couldn’t create shots of average quality, Iverson’s job was to try and drag the 76er offense towards league-average by getting up as many decent shots as he possibly could. During his MVP season, his 51.8% TS% was exactly at league-average, and he shot the ball 25.5 times a game. This took some shots away from more efficient players who could have benefitted from more of a creator (Ratliff and McKie, Mutombo and Kukoc when they were healthy), and it took the burden of shooting away from some truly horrific offensive players (Hill, Lynch, Snow. The end result was that Philadelphia’s TS% was league-average at 51.9%, and they managed to have the 13th-best offensive rating in the league to go along with their #5 defensive rating, and of course they ended up making the Finals that season.
I think Iverson certainly could have benefitted from playing on a team with enough talent to allow Iverson to take a higher proportion of the shots that were efficient for him (namely, ones at the basket) while playing championship-caliber defense, but I think the 76ers may have actually made the most of Iverson’s talents.
Iverson was never more efficient than he was on the 07-08 Carmelo/Iverson Nuggets, who played at the fastest pace in the league and finished 11th in the league in offensive rating, but had the 10th-best defensive rating in the league and were swept in the first round. I think there’s a legitimate argument that while Iverson was better on paper for the Nuggets than he was for the 76ers, he provided more value to the 76ers by allowing them to allocate all the rest of their resources to defense. A rising tide may not have raised Allen Iverson’s boat that much.
We should also probably talk about the 2004 Olympic team, where Iverson led the only “Dream Team” to ever fail to win the gold medal in FGA while shooting 37.7%/36.5%/71.1%. This feels significant to me.
Derrick Rose – 2.6 3PA, 30.4% 3PT%, 82.7% FT%
Like Iverson, Rose won his MVP for sin-eating on a defensively dominant Bulls team. People seem to forget that there’s a different MVP award handed out for every regular season. Rose’s MVP win over LeBron (and Dwight Howard) in 2011 probably wasn’t the best decision, but the Bulls had finished with a better record than the Heat after not being hailed as the superteam to end all superteams before the season, and LeBron had some real late-game gaffes that allowed the Bulls to get that better record. It made a lot of sense at the time! It wasn’t just “people were angry at LeBron and don’t like giving the MVP to one guy too many times.” In any case, people would remember LeBron ending Rose’s whole shit by destroying the Bulls in the ECF and locking Rose down defensively in the 4th quarter better if he didn’t follow that up with the Unforgivable Finals.
It should also be mentioned that Rose has managed to hang around the league despite the destruction of his entire body by being a guy who can come in and knock down some jumpers off the bench. Really good free-throw shooter, too. Also, people who like Derrick Rose fucking LOVE Derrick Rose and I don’t really understand why.
Tier 4 – Wings Who Were Decent Shooters:
Julius Erving: 0.1 3PA, 29.8% 3P%, 77.7% FT%
You might think that Erving playing in the ABA from 1971 to 1976 would have given him a head start when the NBA introduced the 3-point line in 1979. It did not. He didn’t shoot 3s in the ABA, and he didn’t shoot them in the NBA either. Dr. J was also a sub-80% FT shooter, which is not great for an MVP wing. As the wing on this list who spent the most time playing before 3-pointers were anything other than a gimmick, it makes a lot of sense he’s at the bottom of this tier.
Magic Johnson: 1.2 3PA, 30.3% 3PT%, 84.8% FT%
As much as I appreciate Magic turning himself into a shockingly good free throw shooter (Magic came into the league as an 81% shooter from the line, shot 76% in his second and third years, and was consistently shooting at or near 90% before his first retirement), the jump/set shot really wasn’t a big part of his game.
LeBron James: 4.3 3PA, 34.4% 3PT%, 73.4% FT%
I’ll limit myself here, as I’ve thought about LeBron James’ jumper more than pretty much any other single thing in the last 16 years.
  • LeBron ditched long 2s for 3s before it was really en vogue to do so, and he’s continued to do so now that it is
  • 34.4% isn’t a fantastic 3-point percentage, but when you consider that only 35% of his 3-pointers have been assisted, it isn’t half-bad
  • Regarding the above, it is frustrating that LeBron has not added a catch-and-shoot 3 into his game – I try and justify this to myself with the observation that he almost always catches the ball attempting to go downhill where a lot of players would fire the immediate 3, and really only uses the 3 to punish defenders for sitting on his drive too hard
  • Never had much interest in the mid-range game, for a few reasons I think are smart (taking the extra dribble into the paint and passing out or trying a contested shot around the rim are better options for him than they are for most people) and some that just aren’t (he doesn’t have elite balance and has never gotten the footwork down for a pull-up going right)
  • The fucking free throws. I was really ready to put a MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner on LeBron as a shooter after Game 7 in 2014, even though he was only a solid free throw shooter then, but lord almighty it’s gotten tough to watch since then. I will never defend LeBron’s 2011 Finals performance or his free throws. It’s a goddamn miracle he hasn’t choked a big playoff game from the line yet, knock on wood.
  • I’m not sure if his ability to take and make extremely deep 3s is actually something he needs, since almost every defense will willingly concede a normal-distance 3 to him, but it is pretty cool.
Kobe Bryant: 4.1 3PA, 32.9% 3P%, 83.7% FT%
Kobe’s 3-point shooting percentage will age poorly, as it’s just under the Mendoza line (33.0%) for his career. It’s important to remember he came up before the pace-and-space era, and was really the first wing on this list to shoot 3s in volume. With Kobe, the somewhat deficient shooting from distance balances with his ability to get very, very hot from the field, one of the great mid-range games in NBA history, and an incredibly reliable free-throw stroke.
As much as I’d love to make a cute argument for LeBron over Kobe, can you really say that someone who shoots free throws like LeBron is a better shooter than Kobe, who casually bet Gerald Wallace $500,000 dollars he’d make a clutch free throw? I believe you cannot.
Tier 3: The Polar Opposites
James Harden: 7.7 3PA, 36.3% 3PT%, 85.8% FT%
It’s our first 85% free throw shooter on this list of MVPs! Free throws: harder than you think. Remember how back in the Giannis section it was August 31st? It’s now 1:38 on September 2nd. This project may have been a bad idea. In any case, Harden completely revolutionized the notion of when a player can shoot a 3-pointer with a chance of going in, and in a lot of ways is the next step in the Iverson evolutionary pattern – instead of being able to drag an offensively deficient bunch to the league average, Harden is an efficient offense in a can. This season, Harden shot 22.3 field goals per game, with the majority of those attempts coming from deep, averaged 34.3 points per game, had a TS% of 62.6% compared to the league average of 56.5%, and was assisted on 13.9% of his 2-point attempts and 17.1% of his 3-point attempts. That’s mind-bending. Also, this piece that tries to expose step-back 3s as being inefficient by saying “In other words, if NBA players (save for Harden) took step-back 3s all game, their teams would score about five points fewer per game,” is perhaps not as compelling as it thinks it is. I don’t know who exactly was saying it would be a good idea for a team to only shoot step-back 3s, but that guy sure made him look like a dick.
Michael Jordan: 1.7 3PA, 32.7% 3PT%, 83.5% FT%
As our good buddy Ethan Strauss pointed out, those 3-point numbers actually look better than they should because MJ was only any good at threes during that brief period of time when the NBA moved the 3-point line in. Remember back in the Kareem section when I said we’d be looking at another player with a completely unique shooting profile? This would be him. As Kirk Goldsberry, a pretend Harvard professor who revolutionized APBRmetrics through his mastery of dots, pointed out, MJ, at least post-baseball MJ, was completely unique in both the frequency and efficiency with which he shot mid-range jumpers.
Even looking at all the tape where MJ rose up and popped in those jumpers like he was tossing change into a toll basket, I always figured MJ must have been overrated as a jump shooter: He never shot 3s well, his career FG% is 49.7%, and he must have taken a lot of shots at the rim and converted a ton of them, so his mid-range shooting percentage must have been well under 50%, right?. No, it turns out that MJ was strangely bad at layups and an absolute mid-range savant. Seriously, there is no “lost art of the mid-range game” thing happening here – MJ was on another level from every human being at mid-range shooting. Saying the kids today just don’t work on getting a good midrange jumper like MJ had is like going to the Sistine Chapel and lamenting that artists today just don’t work on ceiling brushstroke fundamentals enough.
Re-watching old MJ film through the lens of his mid-range prowess, it does stand out how willing MJ is to “settle” for those turnarounds and pull-ups – as soon as he gets to one of his spots, it’s going up immediately, even when another dribble or two might get him all the way to the rim. Remember how I mentioned the tug-of-war between efficiency and deception earlier? If you have Kareem’s skyhook or MJ’s mid-range jumper, you don’t really need to worry about it. There are pitchers who dominate with pure stuff fired into the strike zone, pitchers who use changes of speed and location to fool hitters, and then every now and again you get a guy with Mariano Rivera’s cutter.
Ultimately, I’m putting MJ ahead of Harden as a shooter, as well as everyone else that’s come before him on this list, because MJ was mainly a jump shooter, and MJ was the best scorer of all time. When you put those statements together, MJ has a hell of a case.
Tier 2: The Legitimately Elite Shooters
Steve Nash: 3.2 3PA, 42.8% 3PT%, 90.4% FT%
I don’t have much to say about Steve Nash. It seems weird in today’s climate that Nash was such a reluctant shooter, but the offenses he helmed in Dallas and Phoenix were consistently the best ones in the league, so it’s hard to hold that against him. It does feel like Nash was a precursor to Curry – brilliant shooter, genius ballhandler, swashbuckling passer, incredible finisher around the rim for his size – but was used in essentially the exact opposite way, which is a little bit interesting.
Dirk Nowitzki: 3.4 3PA, 38% 3PT%, 87.9% FT%
Given the nuanced and unique nature Dirk’s game, which mainly relied on funky mid-post and face-up moves, it is truly bizarre how long Dirk’s reputation was “the tall white guy who can shoot 3s.” None of the players who were supposed to be “the next Dirk Nowitzki” played remotely like Dirk Nowitzki, but that didn’t stop teams from falling in love with them. If Steve Novak had been playing in the Bosnia league, he probably would have been a top-5 pick. The closest thing we have to a Dirk descendant playing now is probably Jokic – there’s a lot more Dirk in him than there is in Danilo Gallinari.
Kevin Durant: 4.9 3PA, 38.1% 3PT%, 88.3% FT%
Here’s the argument for Kevin Durant being the best offensive player of all time, and I think it’s a fairly decent one: is there one team, from the Mikan Lakers to now, who would not get instantly better offensively by adding Kevin Durant to their starting lineup? With LeBron, you need to space the floor with shooters and come up with ways to get him either downhill making plays or getting touches near the basket. MJ had his completely unique mid-range game that he needs the ball to employ. Same thing with Kobe. You need to install all kinds of off-ball actions to get anywhere near the maximum value out of Steph. Any of the great post players hurts your spacing at least a little bit. KD, though? Pop him in 1964 and he’s bullying everybody in the post. He’d look very good spacing the floor for Magic and Worthy. Put him with AI on the 2001 76ers and you probably have a better version of the Westbrook/Durant Thunder. Put him in the Ron Harper spot on the MJ/Scottie/Rodman Bulls and watch the destruction. (I feel like this would have the worst chance of working, since Jerry Krause would have never shut up about him and MJ may have subsequently started putting cesium in his food, or Phil might have insisted he only play 15 minutes a game for vague triangle reasons.) Heck, the Warriors he ran through the league with might have been the worst team for maximizing his skills, because the one knock on him is that he’s not all that enthusiastic about moving without the ball, which is the staple of the Warriors offense.
On the fast break, he’s a monster. He can destroy you off the dribble. He can post up anyone. He can knock down any catch-and-shoot 3. Give him the ball in space going towards the basket and you’re dead. Anyways, it’s fascinating to me that even though KD is 7 feet tall and pretty much unstoppable once he gets a stride away from the basket, his shot is dangerous enough so that almost everything he does is off the threat of it – every touch he gets, the first thing he looks for is whether he has the space for an open 3, and he forces every defender to close out hard on him despite how screwed they’ll be if he gets past them.
Players on this list who forced rule changes:
  • Kevin Durant got the “rip move” banned, or at least specifically limited
  • Harden caused the rules to tighten up on 3-shot fouls – you have to be in your shooting motion before contact to get free throws now
  • Iverson caused a crackdown on palming
  • Barkley (along with Mark Jackson) caused the implementation of the 5-second post-up rule
  • Derrick Rose – the “Derrick Rose Rule” in the CBA
  • Shaq – because of him, every NBA team is required to have a replacement backboard immediately available (I do not believe the zone defense was instituted as an anti-Shaq measure)
  • KG, along with Shaq, had to have his contract grandfathered into a CBA
  • Kareem – dunks banned in the NCAA
Larry Bird: 1.9 3PA, 37.6% 3PT%, 88.6% FT%
Even though I fully believe that Kevin Durant is “objectively” a better shooter than Bird, I’m putting Bird ahead of him for this reason: he was the absolute undisputed best outside shooter in the NBA when he played. In Korea, every so often there comes a competitive gamer who is so clearly the best in the world he gets called a “bonjwa.” (Yes, I’m running out of competitive endeavors to mine metaphors from.) It happens extremely rarely, because there’s almost always a solid argument for one player or another being the best, so it’s special when it does happen. Larry Bird was a shooting Bonjwa. He led the league in 3-pointers made while shooting better than 40% from deep twice. The NBA average 3-point percentage during his career was 29.7%. He won the first 3 3-point contests. He shot nearly 90% from the line. Larry Bird was the first truly great 3-point shooter, and he was great at shooting from everywhere else too.
Tier 1: Steph By God Curry
Steph Curry: 8.2 3PA, 43.5% 3P%, 90.6% FT%
Considering how putting a ball into a basket was the original basketball skill, it’s a little bit absurd how much better at shooting a basketball Steph Curry is than every other human to have ever lived. He’s the best spot-up shooter. He’s the best shooter off the dribble. He’s the best shooter at screens. He’s the best player at using (and setting) screens to get himself open. He’s the best from deep range. (Damian Lillard can be argued for this one.) He has the best free throw percentage of all time. In a time where absolutely everyone is shooting, Steph is an unquestioned shooting Bonjwa. Of course, we learned all the wrong lessons from Steph’s 3-point revolution, but that’s a story for another time.
“Steph is really good at shooting” isn’t news, so here’s a fun fact: No superstar has sacrificed more of their 3-point percentage in pursuit of buzzer-beaters than Steph. He is 4-77 on “heaves” in his career: if he had never attempted one, his career 3-point percentage would be an even 44.0% and he would jump from 6th to 4th on the all-time 3PT% list. For comparison, LeBron has “heaved” the ball 34 times in his career. Durant, 9. Kobe, 21. Dame, 17. You get the picture.
Okay, that should wrap it up. If you actually finished this, my sincere thanks.
submitted by John_Krolik to nbadiscussion

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