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A very detailed DD on $ASRT(Assertio Therapeutics)

What is Assertio Therapeutics? * They are formerly known as Depomed, they have transformed theur company with a current focus on three FDA-approved products in their core areas of neurology, orphan, and specialty medicines as they continue to identify, license, and develop new products that offer enhanced options for patients who may be underserved by existing therapies.
Assertio Pipeline Products * Currently, Assertio had two products that are past P3 of clinical trails and have been Submitted to the FDA for approval, those products are: - Diclofenac Potassium: Mild/moderate acute pain 12-17 years - Long-acting Cosyntropin: Diagnosis of Adrenal Insufficiency
This is very important due to fact that if they are approved, it will provide a huge jump to their stock price/value
Their patented technology * Their patented technology is known as Acuform. It is a patented polymer-based tech designed to optimize drug delivery. * Acuform technology is currently being used in multiple marketed products and being evaluated internally and with other potential partners for many additional compounds. * With Acuform technology, unique swelling polymers allow tablets to be retained in the stomach—the preferential absorption site for many oral drugs—for 8–10 hours vs the 3 hours seen with immediate-release and some extended-release formulations. * This gradual, extended release allows for more drug absorption in the upper GI tract, offering the potential for greater efficacy and increased tolerability, with the convenience of once- or twice-daily dosing. * Tablets utilizing Acuform technology can be tailored to deliver new drug combinations of varying properties, either simultaneously or sequentially, for a wide array of product possibilities * Here is a link for the actual Acuform patent if you're interested in reading it.
Q1 2020 Financials/reports * The first Quarter of 2020 proved to be the beginning of what is set to be an amazing year financial and medically for Assertio Therapeutics. * Their EPS was .10 thus beating set EPS expectations of -.08 by 225% *Their revenue for Q1 was $20.92 Million thus beating set revenue expectations of $11.3 Million by 85.16%
You may wonder how/why their revenue is considered positive despite it being 30M less than the previous quarter. I'll explain why right now * The reason for the revenue being considered positive despite it lower than the previous quarter is due to the fact of the sales of two of their drugs to other companies
Sales of both NUCYNTA &Gralise * Assertio sold NUCYNTA franchise to collegium pharmaceuticals for a total of $375 million dollars in addition, they also paid for inventory relating to NUCYNTA * They sold Gralise to Alvogen for a total of $127.5 Million dollars, plus inventory * Sold both for a combined total of $502.5 Million dollars
Why the sale of two high earning products is amazing & what it sets up for Q2-Q4 of 2020 * With the combined sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise for $502M, Assertio was able to repay their senior debt in full * Repaying their Senior debt in full is amazing because with the sale closing and the accelerated repayment of their senior debt obligations, it allows Assertio Therapeutics the ability to invest in their core business which will help them build and grow for the future. * the Company has also retired substantially all of its outstanding Convertible Notes through $188.0 million of privately negotiated purchase agreements and a tender of an additional $76.7 million. * The sale of NUCYNTA & Gralise sets up the the merger of Assertio Therapeutics with Zyla
The Merger of Zyla into Assertio Therapeutics * Early 2020, Assertio Therapeutics announces the agreement to merge with Zyla Life Sciences to create a synergestic portfolio of Neurology & non-opiod pain products. *The merged company will remain where Assertio is based, in Lake Forrest Illinois. * The merged company will keep Assertio's name and trade on Nasdaq under the ASRT ticker symbol. * Assertio therapeutics will hold 68% ownership & Zyla will hold 32% ownership of the merged company * Under the deal, Zyla stockholders will receive 2.5 common shares of the combined company for each common share of Zyla held. * The Merger is set to close after the shareholders meeting on May 19th
Why the Merger with positively impact share price/company * The merger between the companies Expects to capture significant operating and product portfolio synergies upwards of $40 Million, accelerating revenue growth and creating shareholder value * The combined company will have a leading portfolio of branded non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) commonly used by neurologists, orthopedic surgeons, internists, women’s health providers, podiatrists and pain care specialists * The new company will have the platform, profitability and financial strength to both grow its existing portfolio and acquire additional complementary assets. * Assertio said the combined company has pro forma 2019 net product sales of about $128 million and is expected to have product portfolio synergies of over $40 million. * the Assertio board of directors’ expectation that the combined company will have a stronger financial position than Assertio on a stand-alone basis, with attractive pro forma revenues, 2020 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be greater than 25% and anticipated 2020 debt to EBITDA leverage of two times * the Assertio board of directors’ belief that combining Assertio with Zyla would establish the largest portfolio of branded NSAIDs in the United States, significantly enhancing the competitive position of the combined company by providing increased scale and broader commercial reach, and providing opportunities to expand into new therapeutic areas * Set to increase shareholder's value * Here are links to the SEC filings & their presentations regarding the merger and the benefits of the merger: - Link 1 - Link 2 - Link 3 - Link 4
**One of the best bits of information that came out of Q1 is that with the sale of Gralise & NUCYNTA and the repayment of their senior debt obligations, Assertio Therapeutics are currently on track to having zero debt.
Target Price/Forecasts * The Wallstreet journal sets their Target Price at $1.35 * CNN money sets their target price at $1.35 * Zacks sets ASRT as a strong buy and sets their target price at $1.35 * Finviz sets their target price at $1.35 *Zyla Life sciences currently trades at $2.00 on the OTC Market
Final thoughts & comments * As I always tell you guys, this is just a very detailed post containing as much useful information I could find and write about so you guys can read and make your own well informed decision. At the end of the day, it is upto you if you decide to purchase shares and how much you'll purchase. What I'm doing for you is that I want to give you guys the best knowledge possible before you make your decision.
  • I genuinely believe in their products and I believe in their CEOs and I believe in the merger.
  • The way they are handling and changing courses for this year has been incredibly successful so far & the proof is there with those sales and with beating set expectations of them by wide margins.
  • Not only that, but theyre responsible with the new large amounts of cash they've received and the proof is there with them fully paying off their debt
  • Plus the CEOs of Assertio & Zyla who will be running the newly merged company have 25 & 35 years of experience and have previously held high ranking positions with Bayer, Abbot Laboratories pharmaceutical division, Enzon pharmaceuticals & Horizon Therapeutics
  • For those reasons mentioned above, I firmly believe this company will be trading higher than the $1.35 target price.
  • I personally own 600 shares of $ASRT (bought in at .77)
  • I'll be holding these shares through Q2-Q4
I hope this post helps you guys out and I hope everyone has a great day & hope you all have been having a good week as well :)
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